China, US, War Clouds over North Korea and India’s Predicament

Image Courtesy: The Times of India

According to Chinese diplomats, Donald Trump is far easier to do business with comparing Obama. This has been confirmed by Trump himself in an exclusive interview to Maria Bartiromo of the Fox Business before calling Chinese president Xi Jinping on April 11, 2017. In the interview, Trump talked about his meetings with president Xi, and revealed that he had a very, very good meeting with the latter and liked him. He talked about certain chemistry and understanding between them, and said that Xi was the one with whom he can get along very well. More importantly, when asked about trade and currency, Trump’s reply was that ‘the first thing I brought up was North Korea.  I said you’ve got to help us with North Korea, because we can’t allow it…I told him that if China helps the US on the issue, China will do better in the trade with the US.’ While enjoying his chocolate cake desert, Xi was briefed by Trump about the US firing 59 missiles in Syria. Trump revealed that Xi Jinping’s response was ‘it’s ok.’ ‘I believe he is O.K with it, he was O.K…I think he understood the message and I understood what he was saying to me.’ No wonder Chinese diplomats told me they were at ease with doing business with Trump.

Now as North Korea condemns the missile attack on Syria as ‘unforgiveable act of aggression’ and gets ready for its sixth nuclear test, the US in a ‘show of force’ has dispatched USS Carl Vinson strike group to the Korean Peninsula which has created a lot of hue and cry in China. North Korea on its part has justified its ‘self-defensive and pre-emptive strike capabilities with the nuclear force at the core.’ What are the reactions and responses coming from China?

In the wake of Trump-Xi meeting and Wednesday’s phone call between the two leaders, Chinese analysts argue that as long as China’s and Russia’s interests are taken care of, this may be an opportunity to ‘reboot’ China’s ties with North Korea. First and foremost, present leadership in North Korea must step down, the new leadership must accept the denuclearisation, however, the US must not unify the country. Furthermore, the US and South Korean armies must not cross the 38th parallel. Even if there are surgical strikes inside North Korea by a small force, they also must retreat to south of the parallel immediately. In order to secure its interests, China must simultaneously send its ground forces and navy to the North, thus reinforce the above interests. If the US brushes aside these interest, conflict with the US cannot be ruled out.

Some in China also fear the convergence of Russian and American interests in the Korean peninsula for pinning down China, however, given the present equations, they believe this kind of convergence is ruled out. On the other hand, the possibility of anti US Sino-Russian alliance of the 1950s is also ruled out. What conspired between Trump and Xi on 12th morning is not known except Xi telling him that China wishes to resolve the crisis through peaceful means, however, Chinese are of the view that China will not go to war with the US over North Korea. In the face of this consensus, some argues that Kim Jong Un in order to save his skin, must compromise, for war rhetoric will not work. Nevertheless, in official circles, China has been warning the US with consequences of the strikes in its backyard, and that North Korea is not Syria, the former has the capabilities to counter attack.

As far as India is concerned, though it has no stakes in the Korean Peninsula, however, the consensus which Trump has reached with China, is not just on the Korean crisis but a whole gamut of US-China relationship. It is an open secret that whenever the US and China have reached such consensus, China has exerted more pressure on India; one may recall the Chinese pronouncements in the wake of India’s nuclear explosions in 1998.

Coming closer to the US as regards its security dilemmas, has always been a strategic temptation for the Indian leadership. This temptation was incrementally and discreetly elevated by the UPA II regime in India, however, the Modi government seems to have gone overboard; siding with the US on South China Sea issue and the signing of the ‘vision statement’ is the manifestation of this. India’s political relationship with China presently is at the lowest ebb, how far the US will protect Indian interests at the regional as well as international level is anyone’s guess. In the wake of the Dalai Lama’s Tawang visit, China has threatened India to take necessary steps to protects its ‘territorial integrity.’

As far as our relations with China are concerned, we have been high on rhetoric, whereas the border infrastructure is in shambles. Someone has pointed that Kautilya’s ‘duel policy’ and ‘war by counsel’ provided in his classic, Arthshastra will provide some clues to deal with China, however, I have been arguing that both will not work unless, India’s domestic drivers are not strong. India must seriously rebalance its relationship with both the US and China at the earliest and make a choice between the strategic temptation and strategic opportunity.

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Profile photo of Prof. B.R. Deepak
Prof. Deepak is a Professor with the Center of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is the Managing Editor of the Think India Journal and the Asia and Nehru Fellow, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China.
  • Mr. JoseManimala Pala

    Trump dumps Russia, woos China instead

    By Nicole GaouetteWashington (CNN)President Donald Trump has a new best frenemy.

    Once upon a time, Trump mused about how well he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would get along. Then-candidate Trump said Putin had declared him a “genius,” criticized the Obama administration’s tensions with Moscow and said it would be better “if we got along.”
    China, on the other hand, was a currency manipulator, a thief of US jobs that should no longer be allowed to “rape our country.” If elected, Trump promised to impose heavy tariffs on Beijing and take it to court for shady trade practices.
    It turns out that wielding power — as opposed to criticizing it — can change your outlook.
    This month, during which his administration has stepped up US military action in Syria and Afghanistan as he looks to reassert US power, Trump said that “we’re not getting along with Russia at all, we may be at an all-time low.” He and Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, have “a very good chemistry,” Trump declared.
    The President’s reversal on Russia and China is part of a series of policy flip-flops that have seen Trump abandon campaign positions on NATO, Israel, the Iran nuclear agreement and US alliances in Asia.
    RELATED: US drops largest non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan
    The shifts, which bring Trump’s White House in line with many Obama and George W. Bush administration policies, may not last under this mercurial president, but they reflect some hard facts about America’s interests.
    “Whatever the aspirations on the campaign trail, they have given way to the realities of what it takes to conduct American foreign policy in a cruel and unforgiving world,” said Aaron David Miller, vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
    “The way this administration does business is highly unorthodox in so many respects,” Miller said, “but the ultimate outcome on so many issues seems now to come around to a pretty conventional approach.”
    And so it is — these days — with Russia and China.
    Trump had been eager to improve relations with Moscow and often expressed confidence that his ability to bond with Putin would ease friction between Washington and Moscow over Russia’s role in Syria and its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
    But Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s alleged April 4 chemical weapons attack on his own civilians triggered Trump’s outrage, leading him to strike a Syrian airfield with Tomahawk missiles and seeming to mark a change in Trump’s outlook on Russia — which has supported Assad throughout Syria’s bloody civil war.
    Watch: CNN sent to secretive North Korea event

    Watch: CNN sent to secretive North Korea event 01:33
    Trump’s administration, shadowed by Russia’s alleged interference in the US election, had already been shifting its views on Moscow as the former real estate mogul brought more figures into the White House who backed traditional foreign policy positions.
    Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who had his own foreign policy research and risk analysis staff as CEO of ExxonMobil, along with UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, all sounded a tougher note on Russia than the President did, pointing out the ways that Moscow works to counter US interests around the world.
    “They were all sounding much tougher on Russia, much more like the Obama administration, and the outlier was the White House,” said Angela Stent, director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University.
    The US missile strike was an exclamation mark establishing that Trump, for the time being at least, has come to see Russia in more conventional US foreign policy terms. “You have a much more consolidated policy toward Russia now,” Stent said.
    Putin told Russian TV in an interview Wednesday that under Trump, the relationship between Washington and Moscow had “worsened.”
    Even as he took a harsher tone on the longtime US adversary, Trump still seemed to offer some reassurance in a Wednesday appearance with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, saying that, “It would be wonderful … if NATO and our country could get along with Russia.” On Thursday, Trump tweeted that, “things will work out fine between the U.S.A. and Russia. At the right time everyone will come to their senses & there will be lasting peace!”
    US strike group heads toward North Korea

    US strike group heads toward North Korea 02:27
    But Stent said that actually there is likely to be continued US-Russia tension. “All the problems the previous administration had still remain,” she said.
    “You had these role reversals,” according to Miller, a former State Department official, “with China as a bad guy and Putin being courted. But in the face of realities, there’s been a switch. Russia basically now occupies the role that China was supposed to occupy in the Trump administration.”
    The “realities” that Trump faces include North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s accelerating pursuit of nuclear and missile technology. Trump sent tweets this week praising Xi for committing to help restrain North Korea, which may be on the verge of a sixth nuclear test. Beijing is Pyongyang’s closest ally.
    On Tuesday, Trump tweeted that he’d told Xi a trade deal with the US would be “far better for them if they solve the North Korea problem.” On Wednesday, Trump tweeted that he and Xi had had “a very good call” about Pyongyang. And Thursday, the president tweeted that he had “great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A.”
    Sandy Pho, a senior program associate for the Kissinger Institute on China at the Wilson Center, said that Trump, like many new presidents, has been facing a learning curve on the ways of Beijing.
    Watch Trump's stunning U-turns on key issues

    Watch Trump’s stunning U-turns on key issues 00:57
    “You cannot not talk to China. I think that’s what he realized. It’s too important,” said Pho, but she warned Trump may be underestimating China’s influence over North Korea and its interest in an outcome the US would be happy with.
    What Beijing wants in North Korea is stability, not potentially disruptive change. “The last thing they want is a flood of North Korean refugees coming over their border,” Pho said.
    And the only thing Beijing might think was worse, she said, would be a unified and US-allied Korean Peninsula on the border.
    If Trump thinks his new posture towards the geopolitical rivals will help him play them off against each other, Stent suggested he think again.
    “I think he fundamentally doesn’t understand the nature of the Russia-China relationship,” she said, describing it as pragmatic. The two authoritarian governments support each other on major foreign policy problems, dislike domestic protest and see the US in a similar way.
    “Both agree that we need a new world order that takes their interests into account more than it does right now, and both agree it’s time to move away from a US-dominated global order,” Stent said.
    CNN’s Dan Merica contributed to this report.